Hang Seng Index Up 0.66%
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The Hang Seng Index(HSI)edged up 0.66% this week, while the Hang Seng TECH Index(HSTECH) showed weakness, declining 2.07%. The Hong Kong stock market exhibited structural divergence, primarily driven by recurring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and sharp fluctuations in global macroeconomic expectations. Although trading volume in the Hang Seng Index contracted by 12.28% compared to its 50-day average on the final day, reflecting cautious sentiment, continuous inflows from the south provided crucial support to the market.
The performance of Hong Kong stocks is highly correlated with the global macro environment. Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 28 fell to 202,000, lower than the expected 212,000, indicating a still-tight labor market. Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March came in at 52.7, marking the second consecutive month of expansion. Coupled with February retail sales rising by a better-than-expected 0.6% month-on-month, this reinforces economic resilience. However, the conflict in the Middle East has led to sustained tightness in energy supply. Although EIA crude oil inventories increased by 5.451 million barrels, the market is more focused on the risk of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude prices to briefly surpass $140 per barrel, exacerbating “stagflation” concerns. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, but its dot plot significantly lowered rate cut expectations, implying only one cut in 2026. This has led to high-level volatility in US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, putting pressure on global risk assets. As an offshore market, Hong Kong stocks are extremely sensitive to liquidity changes. However, positive signals continue to be released from China’s domestic policy front; the central bank reiterated its “moderately loose” monetary policy stance and emphasized promoting stable economic growth, effectively hedging against some external shocks.
In terms of sector performance, market styles have diverged significantly. Benefiting from expectations of a 100% tariff on imported patented drugs by the US, the pharmaceutical sector became a preferred safe haven. The Medical-Diversified(G1005IG.HK) industry saw a weekly gain of 10.18%, leading all O’Neil industries. CHINARES PHARMA(03320) rose 11.17% for the week, with an EPS Rating of 96 and an RS Rating of 83, demonstrating strong fundamentals and market recognition. Additionally, the consumer sector performed brightly, with 361 DEGREES(01361) in the Apparel-Shoes & Rel Mfg(G3141IG.HK) sector surging 12.67%, boasting an EPS Rating as high as 98. The automotive sector was also strong, with GEELY AUTO(00175) in the Auto Manufacturers(G3711IG.HK) sector leading the HK33 portfolio with a weekly gain of 13.97%. Its EPS Rating is 97, and its 50-day volume ratio skyrocketed to 157.82%, indicating a high concentration of capital.
The US stock market rebounded strongly this week, ending the previous five-week losing streak. The Dow Jones Indus Actual(0DJIA) rose 2.96%, the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) gained 3.36%, and the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) led the gains with a rise of 4.44%.
The reversal in market sentiment was mainly due to the willingness of both the US and Iran to end the conflict, as well as the dovish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, which reignited hopes for interest rate cuts within the year. Although Trump’s tough speech on Friday caused the market to open lower, news of a draft agreement for the Strait of Hormuz ultimately pushed stock indices to close higher. Strong economic data also provided fundamental support, with both ADP employment numbers and ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeding expectations. However, risks have not been completely eliminated; Tesla plunged over 5% due to Q1 deliveries missing expectations, and the trust crisis emerging in the private credit market (such as the redemption wave of Blue Owl funds) has also triggered concerns about the stability of the financial system. Furthermore, the US announcement of high tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper derivatives, and imported pharmaceuticals may push up inflation and disrupt global supply chains in the future.
The A-share market’s CSI 300(000300) retreated 0.86% this week, with trading volume on the final day contracting by 27.84% compared to the 50-day average, indicating light trading and a strong wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the Qingming holiday.
The adjustment was mainly driven by a decline in global risk appetite triggered by the Middle East situation and soaring oil prices. However, the internal structure of the market remains healthy, with clear policy support signals. The official Manufacturing PMI for March returned to expansion territory, recording 52.7, indicating a rebound in economic activity. More importantly, the state is accelerating the construction of a support system for new quality productive forces; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed the concepts of “Computing Power Bank” and “Computing Power Supermarket” for the first time, aiming to lower the threshold for SMEs to use AI. At the same time, the State Administration for Market Regulation continues to rectify “involution-style” competition to guide healthy industry development. Against this backdrop, safe-haven and policy-benefiting sectors such as oil & gas and innovative drugs remained relatively firm, while AI application concept stocks with large gains in the early stage saw obvious pullbacks.
The Top 33 Portfolio performed excellently this week, rising an average of 0.79% (21 up, 12 down), significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. The leading stock was GEELY AUTO(00175), with a weekly gain of 13.97%, and its industry rank is 90. The Model Portfolio, however, fell slightly by 1.03%, with CATL(03750) down 1.03% for the week; although its RS Rating is as high as 88, it was constrained by the overall market’s cautious sentiment towards high-valuation growth stocks. Since its inception, HK33 has continuously demonstrated relative advantages in volatile market conditions due to its screening logic for high earnings growth and strong industries.
From a technical perspective, the current price of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) has moved above its 10-day moving average (+0.54%) but remains below its 50-day (-4.0421%) and 200-day (-2.4355%) moving averages, indicating the medium-term trend is in a recovery phase. Key short-term support is near the 24,800 level, with resistance above at 25,500. The Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH) shows a weaker technical pattern, with its current price 10.1566% below its 50-day moving average and significantly below its 200-day moving average (-16.2195%). It has also approached its 1-year low (only 1.2865% higher), suggesting significant downward pressure and that it remains in a bottom-finding process.
Southbound capital was decisive this week, with a total net inflow of HK$5.37 billion. These inflows were concentrated mid-week when the market fluctuated due to external shocks, especially on April 2 when the Hang Seng Index fell; a net buy of HK$19.8 billion occurred against the trend in a single day, focusing on adding positions in safe-haven sectors like oil & gas and pharmaceuticals. This “buy the dip” pattern clearly indicates that mainland investors view the current market correction as a strategic opportunity to allocate high-quality assets, providing solid bottom support for the Hong Kong stock market.
Overall, global markets stabilized and rebounded this week under the combined effect of signs of easing geopolitical gaming in the Middle East and the resilience of US economic data. Hong Kong stocks showed resilience under external pressure, with the Hang Seng Index closing moderately higher, while the Hang Seng TECH Index continued to face pressure due to its own structural issues. Looking ahead, market trends will highly depend on the actual progress of the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations (April 6 is a key node), OPEC+’s production decisions, and the return performance of A-shares after the Qingming holiday in China. The market has risks; investment requires caution.
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published on April 3, 2026