CSI 300 Down 1.37%
Editor’s Note: As always, we would appreciate any feedback you have. It will help us make this app more useful to you.
A-shares maintained an “attempted rebound” status, but indices continued to retreat this week with significantly shrinking volume. The rebound appears more technical, and reversal signals still need observation. The SSE Index(000001) fell -0.86% this week; the final day’s volume was approximately -27.84% compared to the 50-day average. The index remains below the 5/10/20/50-day moving averages but is still about +0.70% away from the 200-day moving average, indicating medium-term support remains while short-term pressure is unresolved. The CSI 300(000300) fell -1.37% for the week; the final day’s volume was about -36.73% compared to the 50-day average, and it is approximately -0.32% away from the 200-day moving average. Pressure on the heavyweight sector makes index recovery more difficult. The pullback was more pronounced on the growth side: the Shenzhen Index(399001) fell -2.96%, and the ChiNext(399006) fell -4.44%. The final day’s volume for both was approximately -24.47% and -29.62% lower than the 50-day average, respectively, showing declining tolerance for high-volatility directions.
Regarding Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose +0.66% this week, but the final day’s volume was about -12.28% lower than the 50-day average. Although the index rose above the 5/10-day moving averages, it remains below the 50/200-day moving averages, making the rebound more of a short-term repair. Overseas, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rose +4.44%, and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose +3.36% for the week, but both remain below their 50/200-day moving averages. The overseas rebound provides some support for A-share risk appetite, but the transmission strength depends on the repricing of interest rates and inflation expectations.
U.S. data shows employment and demand have not cooled significantly. Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 were only 202,000, significantly lower than the expected 212,000 and down from the previous 211,000, indicating low layoff pressure and a tight labor market. March ADP employment change was 62,000, higher than the expected 40,000. February retail sales MoM grew 0.6%, better than the expected 0.5% and reversing the previous -0.1%, reflecting resilient consumption. The March ISM Manufacturing PMI was 52.7, higher than the previous 52.4 and remaining in expansion territory, showing sustained improvement in manufacturing sentiment. In this combination of “strong employment, stable consumption, and manufacturing expansion,” the Federal Reserve lacks urgent reasons to cut rates; interest rates are more likely to remain at restrictive levels for longer to prevent inflation from resurging.
However, energy and trade policies are increasing uncertainty regarding inflation and growth paths. EIA crude oil inventories continued to build significantly (5.451 million barrels, lower than the previous 6.926 million but far exceeding the expected 81.4 thousand). While supply and demand fundamentals pressure oil prices, real-world pricing is more affected by uncertainties in Strait of Hormuz transit, war spillover, and shipping security costs. Cost-push factors may diffuse to broader inflation through fuel, freight rates, and input prices. Overseas, there are concerns about “soaring factory input costs and an impending wave of price hikes.” Meanwhile, U.S. measures such as imposing 100% tariffs on imported patented drugs and pharmaceutical ingredients may increase inflation stickiness through import costs and supply chain transmission, exacerbating supply chain disruptions amidst global trade friction.
Domestic policy continues the framework of “emphasizing both stable growth and expectations, with structural upgrades throughout.” The central bank explicitly stated it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. The core is to maintain reasonable liquidity, stabilize the financing environment and risk appetite, and avoid credit contraction and sharp expectation turns when external shocks increase. On the fundamentals side, the three major PMI indices for March returned to the expansion zone, and economic sentiment is recovering. Coupled with judgments from various institutions that Q1 GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%, it implies policy support is transmitting to physical data.
Policy emphasizes “New Momentum + New Infrastructure + Energy Transition”: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed “Computing Power Banks” and “Computing Power Supermarkets,” aiming to lower the threshold for SMEs to use computing power through platform-based, standardized supply, improving digital transformation efficiency, and driving AI application diffusion. Li Qiang emphasized new power grid construction and energy structure optimization during research in Sichuan. Against the backdrop of rising external energy risks, this aims to improve domestic energy security and accommodation capacity through power grid and new energy system construction, reducing sensitivity to external shocks. Meanwhile, investments in major projects like the high-speed railway along the Yangtze River reflect the idea of stabilizing demand through effective investment and enhancing potential growth and industrial driving effects through infrastructure. Regarding the institutional environment, the General Office of the State Council proposed gradually forming a unified comprehensive evaluation system for corporate credit status, which helps reduce transaction costs, improve financing pricing and resource allocation efficiency, and provides longer-term institutional support for stabilizing expectations.
Next week, 289 stocks will release earnings reports. As the market enters earnings season, individual stock volatility and divergence are expected to rise, and trading sensitivity to performance realization and guidance changes will significantly increase.
On the sector level, the top three gaining sectors this week reflect a combination of “fiber optic expansion—medical service recovery—shipping disruption pricing.” Telecom-Fiber Optics(G3552IG.CN) rose about 6.05% for the week, related to data center interconnection and the demand for high-speed optical modules and fiber optic network expansion driven by AI clusters. Coupled with policy expectations for continued investment in computing infrastructure, the sector is more likely to attract trend-following funds. Medical-Services(G1044IG.CN) rose about 5.39%, reflecting that the resilience of medical demand and defensive attributes remain attractive in a volatile market. However, the intraday pullback indicates increasing divergence; the short term is more likely influenced by policy expectations, cost control, and the pace of earnings realization. Transportation-Ship(G4411IG.CN) rose about 3.06%, related to freight rate elasticity caused by Middle East conflicts, route diversions, and port efficiency disruptions, possessing certain event-driven attributes. However, the sector is highly sensitive to freight rates and supply-demand rebalancing; sustainability depends on shipping congestion, capacity deployment, and the transmission of rising oil prices to the cost side.
Regarding individual stocks and the portfolio, the Top 33 fell an average of -2.52% this week, with 12 rising and 21 falling. The best performer was Yutong Bus ‘A'(600066), with an O’Neil Score of 73, RS Rating of 88, EPS Rating of 99, Acc/Dis Rating of A+, and Industry Rating of 136. As a leader in medium and large buses, the company covers three technical routes: traditional buses and new energy buses (pure electric, plug-in, fuel cell). Against the backdrop of bus electrification, public transport updates, and overseas market expansion, it is more likely to gain performance elasticity from order and delivery rhythms.
Maintain moderate positions in an “attempted rebound” environment. Use volume surges and the recovery of key moving averages as prerequisites for adding positions, avoiding blind chasing when trading volume consistently remains below the 50-day average. Externally, geopolitical events and oil price volatility may still amplify uncertainty in inflation and interest rate expectations. Entering earnings season, performance and guidance will be the core variables determining the relative strength of individual stocks.
What do you think? Please email us any questions or comments.
Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.
published on April 3, 2026