CSI 300 rose 4.41%
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The A-share market has shifted into an “uptrend”. The SSE Index(000001) rose 2.74% this week, moving above its 5/10/20-day moving averages, but remains approximately 1.65% below its 50-day moving average. Trading volume on the last day was about 18.42% lower than the 50-day average, indicating that the index’s recovery is outpacing the recovery in volume. The CSI 300(000300) rose 4.41% for the week, also moving above its 5/10/20-day moving averages. The rebound in heavyweight stocks provides stronger support for the trend reversal, but volume on the last day remained about 19.55% lower, warranting caution regarding potential pullback pressure following a rally on declining volume. Growth stocks showed greater elasticity, with the Shenzhen Index(399001) rising 7.16% for the week, and the ChiNext(399006) surging 9.5% to hit a new yearly high. Both indices are trading significantly above their 50/200-day moving averages, as a rebound in risk appetite has driven leadership in high-elasticity sectors.
Regarding Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) rose 3.09% this week, moving above its 5/10/20-day moving averages and approaching the 200-day line, yet it remains about 0.91% below the 50-day moving average. Furthermore, trading volume on the last day was approximately 12.20% lower than the 50-day average, suggesting the price recovery is faster than the volume follow-through. Overseas, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rose 4.31% and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose 3.68% for the week. Both have returned above their 50-day moving averages but remain slightly below the 200-day line. The recovery in overseas risk assets is exerting a positive pull on A-share sentiment.
The latest overseas data presents a picture of “unbroken growth momentum, moderating but sticky inflation, and more difficult rate cuts”. Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 4 rose to 219,000, higher than the expected 210,000 and up from the previous 203,000. This indicates a marginal cooling in the labor market, but it remains in a historically low range, insufficient to force a rapid policy pivot. On the inflation front, February’s core PCE year-on-year was 3.0%, consistent with expectations and a slight decrease from the previous 3.1%, indicating that inflation is still declining but at a slow pace. Against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve communication has turned more hawkish: on one hand, “mouthpieces” emphasize that the prospects for rate cuts are dimmer regardless of a US-Iran ceasefire; on the other, officials have stated that rate hikes are not off the table if inflation remains high, aiming to anchor inflation expectations and prevent financial conditions from loosening prematurely.
Energy data also reinforces this uncertainty: EIA crude oil inventories increased by 3.081 million barrels. Although significantly lower than the previous 5.451 million, it far exceeded the expected 0.701 million. Supply and demand fundamentals lean towards alleviating pressure on oil prices; however, the market is more focused on the “tail risk of supply disruption” brought by options for strikes on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian energy facilities. The IMF’s warning regarding “slowing growth and intensifying inflation” implies that if the conflict drags on, high oil prices and rising freight rates will push the world into a more typical “stagflation-like” environment. This would cause major central banks to prioritize controlling inflation over stabilizing growth, thereby raising the global interest rate center of gravity and suppressing risk assets.
Domestic policy reflects a multi-objective synergy of “stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and promoting transformation”. Facing external energy and trade uncertainties, the state continues to intervene in regulating refined oil prices, aiming to weaken the transmission of international oil price volatility to domestic prices and logistics costs, thereby stabilizing consumption and business expectations. Meanwhile, March PPI year-on-year turned from a decline to a 0.5% increase, marking the first positive reading after 41 consecutive months of decline. This releases signals of demand repair and rising industrial product prices, implying that policy support is transmitting to corporate profitability. However, caution is still needed regarding imported inflation triggered by geopolitical shocks pushing price increases from “repair” to “squeeze”. Under the orientation of prioritizing both growth and security, the “State Council Regulations on Industrial Chain and Supply Chain Security” were issued, emphasizing resilience and controllability in key links. This is an institutional arrangement to enhance supply-side stability in an uncertain external environment. The State Council also issued the overall plan for the Inner Mongolia Free Trade Zone, serving the layout of industrial chains such as energy, equipment manufacturing, and modern logistics through higher-level opening up and institutional innovation, which not only stabilizes expectations for foreign trade and investment but also provides a new engine for regional growth.
At the industrial level, the AI “super cycle” is driving up demand for memory chips, showing that a new round of tech prosperity is supporting manufacturing investment and export structure. At the same time, four departments have deployed measures to regulate the competitive order of the power and energy storage battery industries, continuing the line of thought to rectify “involuted” competition. The goal is to shift expansion from low-price market grabbing to competition based on technology, quality, and safety standards, avoiding price wars that compress profits and induce financial and industrial risks.
Next week, 679 stocks will release earnings reports. As the market enters earnings season, individual stock volatility and divergence are expected to rise significantly. The focus of trading will shift from thematic diffusion to performance realization and the quality of guidance.
At the sector level, against the backdrop of strengthening indices, capital is further concentrating on the “AI computing power chain”. The top three performing sectors this week reinforced the resonance of “optical interconnection expansion – electronic channel prosperity – memory base volume expansion”. Telecom-Fiber Optics(G3552IG.CN) rose approximately 14.35% for the week with significantly expanded turnover. Driven by demand for high-speed optical connections from data center interconnects and AI clusters, the sector is showing trend acceleration. However, the sector’s daily gain of approximately +1.683% indicates increasing divergence at high levels. Around the earnings season, it is more necessary to use order visibility and delivery rhythms to verify the trend’s continuation. Wholesale-Electronics(G3577IG.CN) rose approximately 13.49% for the week. With only 6 components, its elasticity is more concentrated, reflecting restocking and rising prosperity expectations on the consumer electronics and AI hardware channel side. This type of sector has a higher dependence on single leaders and event catalysts; pullbacks are often faster, so trading places more weight on volume continuity and the support for pullbacks in strong stocks. Computer-Data Storage(G3578IG.CN) rose approximately 12.87% for the week with active turnover, related to memory capacity upgrades, data center capital expenditure, and the warming of enterprise-level demand under the “AI super cycle”.
Regarding individual stocks and portfolios, the Top 33 rose an average of 7.63% this week, with 29 advancing and 4 declining, showing a marked improvement in breadth. The leading gainer was Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology(001309), with an O’Neil Score of 73, RS Rating of 99, EPS Rating of 82, Acc/Dis Rating of A+, and Industry Rating of 89. It possesses thematic and performance elasticity under the demand expectations of memory industry chain recovery and the AI super cycle, but during earnings season, attention must still be paid to the marginal impact of terminal demand rhythms, inventory changes, and product mix on profitability.
In the “uptrend” phase, attention and stock selection density can be gradually increased. However, since volume remains weak, position increases should be premised on high-volume breakouts and the diffusion of leading stocks, avoiding chasing highs during a rally on declining volume. Externally, oil prices and geopolitical events may still amplify fluctuations in inflation and interest rate expectations. Internally, entering earnings season, performance and guidance will become the core variables determining strength. Operationally, priority should be given to leaders in industries ranked 1-40 by strength, where fundamentals are verifiable, Acc/Dis Rating is not lower than C, and technical patterns are healthy.
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published on April 10, 2026