CSI 300 Falls 3.77%
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This week, the upward momentum in China’s A-share market stalled, with major indices broadly weakening and market sentiment shifting from previously strong to increasingly cautious. The SSE Index(000001) declined 3.9%, falling below its short-term moving averages for multiple consecutive days and remaining 4.94% below its one-year high—indicating a clear loss of upward momentum. The CSI 300(000300) dropped 3.77%, also trading well below its short-term moving averages, reflecting further contraction in investor risk appetite. The Shenzhen Index(399001) and ChiNext(399006) fell by 5.13% and 6.15%, respectively, both significantly deviating from their 20-day moving averages, with tech-growth sectors bearing the brunt of the pressure. Hong Kong markets mirrored the pullback, as the Hang Seng Index(HSI) slid 5.09% for the week, underscoring persistent structural headwinds.
Volatility in overseas markets stemmed from the “catch-up effect” of delayed U.S. macro data releases and a reassessment of monetary policy expectations. September’s belatedly released U.S. nonfarm payroll data surged to 119,000—far exceeding the 50,000 consensus forecast—while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Although labor market conditions showed marginal softening, overall resilience dampened expectations for a December rate cut. EIA crude oil inventories posted a –3.426 million barrel drawdown, substantially beating forecasts and highlighting intertwined seasonal and demand dynamics. Fed meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreement over whether to cut rates in December. Several investment banks noted that, given the delayed release of key data, a December rate cut is now “virtually certain not to materialize.” This triggered repricing of risk assets, compounded by NVIDIA-led declines in the tech sector, resulting in sharp U.S. equity swings: the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) fell 3.59% for the week, while the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) dropped 2.9%.
Domestically, policymakers continued to signal commitment to stabilizing growth. The State Council’s executive meeting emphasized “boosting consumption and stabilizing investment,” fueling market expectations for potential deployment of fresh RRR cuts or rate reductions. However, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, reflecting deliberate monetary restraint and a focus on targeted support for structural sectors. The Ministry of Finance reported an 88.1% year-over-year increase in securities transaction stamp duty revenue for January–October, signaling improved market liquidity. Meanwhile, central authorities announced plans to enhance local governments’ fiscal autonomy, laying groundwork for new fiscal initiatives during the upcoming “15th Five-Year Plan” period. Multiple agencies jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption in Beijing, strengthening financial backing for enhancing consumer capacity, expanding consumption scenarios, and optimizing payment systems.
Geopolitical and international relations also emerged as key market variables. U.S. domestic political dynamics are rapidly evolving due to new AI industrial policies (“Project Genesis”) and the “Big & Beautiful” legislative agenda. Markets widely anticipate a new cycle for the AI supply chain under strong policy stimulus, though this may be partially offset by the high-rate environment. Diplomatic engagement between China and the U.S. showed progress, with high-level meetings sending stabilizing signals. In contrast, China-Japan relations have notably deteriorated: China suspended imports of Japanese seafood and lodged formal protests, highlighting ongoing geopolitical risks. The Netherlands’ temporary suspension of administrative orders against Nexperia was viewed positively, yet China’s Ministry of Commerce cautioned that a full resolution remains distant, warranting continued attention to semiconductor supply chain uncertainties.
Sector-wise, capital flowed selectively into structural themes this week. Comml Svcs-Advertising(G7310IG.CN) rose 4.98%, primarily driven by sustained rollout of domestic “consumption boost and investment stabilization” policies and a marginal recovery in brand marketing budgets. The latest State Council directives emphasize expanding consumption scenarios and strengthening demand-side management, sustaining advertisers’ willingness to spend post-Singles’ Day. Concurrently, improved monetization tools on content platforms have enhanced ad conversion efficiency, optimizing industry revenue structures. Internet-Content(G3334IG.CN) gained 2.83% for the week, benefiting from increased user engagement time and upgrades to the paid-content ecosystem. Recent localized consumption stimulus policies—including Beijing’s plan to expand digital consumption scenarios—are expected to improve monetization efficiency for video, entertainment, and short-form content companies. Media-Radio/Tv(G4830IG.CN) advanced 2.01%, supported by local media integration reforms and heightened copyright transaction activity. Policy emphasis on upgrading cultural industries and content dissemination systems has opened new revenue streams for broadcast institutions—from advertising and live-stream e-commerce to IP licensing. Additionally, AI adoption in content production is helping reduce costs and enhance production-broadcast efficiency.
The Top 33 portfolio recorded an average weekly decline of –6.97%, with only two stocks posting gains—reflecting broad market pressure, though select leaders demonstrated resilience. Orbbec Inc(688322) led gains with a 6.27% rise. The company belongs to a top-ranked O’Neil Industry group (rank #17), indicating robust sector momentum. It holds an RS Rating of 86 and an EPS Rating of 79, outperforming the broader market in both earnings growth and price trend. Orbbec possesses deep technical expertise in 3D vision sensing, with core products applied in smart devices, biometric identification, and industrial 3D measurement—positioned to benefit from long-term trends in AI, AR, and smart manufacturing. Its counter-trend rally this week underscores dual support from sector strength and clear technological advantages.
Overall, the market shows clear signs of near-term fatigue, with sharp index pullbacks and weakening trading volumes. Yet frequent policy support and intact structural trends mean that leading stocks in strong sectors—with high O’Neil Scores and high RS Ratings—retain relative advantages. In the current correction environment, focusing on stocks within O’Neil Industry groups ranked 1–40 and maintaining Accumulation/Distribution Ratings of A–C can help identify resilient names with sustainable upside potential amid volatility.
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published on November 21, 2025