Hang Seng Rises 2.53%
Editor’s Note: As always, we would appreciate any feedback you have. It will help us make this app more useful to you.
For the week, the Hang Seng Index(HSI)rose by 2.53%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index(HSTECH) outperformed with a weekly gain of 3.77%.
The Hong Kong equity market exhibited a broad-based rebound, primarily driven by improved external liquidity expectations and a temporary easing in U.S.-China relations. Multiple Federal Reserve officials signaled potential rate cuts in December, while the U.S. dollar index declined and offshore renminbi (CNH) strengthened steadily—briefly breaking past the 7.07 level—significantly alleviating funding pressures in the Hong Kong market. Additionally, China’s six ministries jointly released the “Implementation Plan to Enhance Supply-Demand Alignment in Consumer Goods and Further Stimulate Consumption,” which explicitly targets the creation of “three trillion-yuan and ten hundred-billion-yuan” consumption hotspots. This policy has bolstered domestic demand confidence and provided support to Hong Kong-listed consumer and tech sectors.
At the sector level, internet, AI applications, and new energy vehicles led gains among Hang Seng Tech constituents. AI infrastructure-related stocks were particularly active, catalyzed by progress in “Google Chain” technologies. MEITUAN-W(03690) surged more than 5% for the week, reflecting rising expectations for a recovery in local services consumption. In the O’Neil industry classification, the Chemicals-Agricultural(G1800IG.HK) ranked among the top performers (industry rating: 20). Its representative stock, CHINA XLX FERT(01866), jumped 14.05% for the week, with a Relative Strength rating of 89—indicating strong institutional interest driven by supportive policies and recovering demand.
On the U.S. front, as of Thursday, the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) gained 3.17% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) rose 4.23%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly advance and approaching all-time highs. Market sentiment was lifted by strong tech earnings and ongoing AI-driven narratives: Dell’s stock climbed nearly 6% after raising its AI server guidance; Broadcom hit a record high; and Google posted its third straight record close. Although NVIDIA faced early-week pressure due to short-seller allegations, it still closed the week higher, underscoring the overall resilience of the AI supply chain.
Fed officials such as Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman publicly endorsed a December rate cut. Combined with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4%, this significantly boosted valuations for growth stocks. Notably, U.S. September PPI accelerated month-over-month; if upcoming CPI data confirms persistent inflation, the scope for rate cuts could be limited—a potential source of market volatility.
From a macroeconomic perspective, initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell to 216,000, below the expected 225,000, indicating continued labor market resilience. However, September retail sales rose only 0.2% month-over-month, missing the 0.4% forecast, signaling a slowdown in consumer momentum. Meanwhile, core PPI came in below expectations, reinforcing market bets on a December Fed rate cut—currently priced at an 85% probability. Although Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, is reportedly a frontrunner for the next Fed chair—a role that might entail a more aggressive easing path—policy uncertainty remains. The EIA reported a surprise crude inventory build of 2.774 million barrels (versus an expected 55,000), weighing on energy stocks but indirectly benefiting non-energy growth equities. Additionally, reports that the Trump administration is drafting a tariff “Plan B” and an AI “Genesis Mission” executive order have not yet impacted markets but introduce longer-term policy risks.
In the A-share market, the CSI 300(000300) edged up 1.64% for the week, with trading volume down 37.94% from its 50-day average—reflecting growing investor caution. Sector performance diverged sharply: new quality productivity themes such as consumer electronics (spurred by Huawei’s Mate 80 launch), robotics (supported by low-altitude economy policies), and solid-state batteries gained strength, while cyclical sectors like lithium mining and real estate underperformed.
Policy tailwinds remained abundant: the People’s Bank of China conducted its ninth consecutive net-additive Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation (injecting a net CNY 100 billion in November); the six-ministry consumption stimulus plan was unveiled; REITs were expanded to include hotels and sports venues; and the National Development and Reform Commission confirmed that infrastructure REITs now cover 12 major sectors and 52 asset types. Furthermore, profits of industrial firms above designated size rose 1.9% year-on-year in January–October, with equipment manufacturing profits up 7.8%, highlighting ongoing structural improvement. However, October’s standalone profit figure declined 5.5% YoY, mainly due to falling revenues and rising costs—evidencing transitional pains amid the “anti-inward competition” shift. Foreign investor sentiment turned positive: JPMorgan upgraded Chinese equities to “overweight,” while UBS and Fidelity voiced bullish views on tech stocks.
The HK33 portfolio rose an average of 1.33% this week, with 22 constituents advancing and 11 declining—slightly underperforming the HSI. CHINA XLX FERT(01866) led gains with a 14.05% weekly increase. It holds an O’Neil composite score of 72 and an “A” rating for fund flows (indicating heavy buying), reflecting active institutional positioning. Since inception, HK33 has consistently outperformed the Hang Seng Index, demonstrating the effectiveness of selecting high-relative-strength stocks. The model portfolio performed even better, gaining 2.91% on average for the week, with only one stock in decline. Sanhua(02050)led the pack with a 10.62% weekly gain, benefiting from dual tailwinds in automotive thermal management and AI server cooling demand.
Technically, the Hang Seng Index currently trades above its 200-day moving average (+5.78%) but below its 50-day moving average (−1.51%), suggesting a near-term consolidation phase. Trading volume has remained below the 50-day average for multiple sessions (down 45.48% on the latest day), indicating insufficient upside momentum. Key support lies near 25,500 (around the 10-day MA), while resistance is seen at the year-to-date high of 27,381.84—still 5.56% above current levels. The Hang Seng Tech Index shows a similar pattern: the 200-day MA now acts as support (+0.24% above current price), but the 50-day MA remains a ceiling (−6.98% below)—a breakout on higher volume would be needed to confirm a trend reversal.
Southbound capital recorded net inflows of HK$19.841 billion this week—down sharply from last week’s HK$38.602 billion but still marking consecutive days of net buying. On November 25 alone, net purchases reached HK$11.166 billion, with heavy allocations to internet leaders—highlighting mainland investors’ sustained confidence in high-quality Hong Kong assets. The strengthening renminbi (offshore CNH hit a 13-month high) further enhances the appeal of Hong Kong equities, and southbound flows are expected to remain active.
In summary, global markets continue their rebound amid rate-cut expectations, AI industry advances, and Chinese policy support—but internal divergence is intensifying. Hong Kong equities benefit from improved domestic and external liquidity and valuation recovery; A-shares are transitioning from a policy floor toward an earnings floor; and U.S. equities face tension between elevated valuations and policy uncertainty. Key variables in the coming week include forward guidance from the Fed’s December meeting, China’s November PMI data, and OPEC+ production decisions.
At this stage, investors are advised to remain calm and rational, avoid chasing rallies, and prioritize stocks with earnings beats and sound technical setups—adopting a disciplined strategy to navigate market volatility.
What do you think? Please email us any questions or comments.
Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.
published on November 28, 2025