CSI 300 Rises 0.86%
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A-shares maintain an “uptrend,” but index gains narrowed this week, reflecting “consolidation at highs within a strong trend.” The SSE Index(000001) rose +0.7% this week, trading slightly below its 5-day moving average (-0.09%) but remaining above its 10/20/50/200-day moving averages, keeping the structure bullish; final-day volume was approximately -4.22% below the 50-day average. The CSI 300(000300) gained +0.86% for the week, trading above its 10/20/50/200-day moving averages, but final-day volume was about -17.88% below the 50-day average, with large-cap gains relying more on rotations of existing capital. Growth-side momentum cooled, with the Shenzhen Index(399001) up +0.37% and the ChiNext(399006) down -0.29% for the week; however, ChiNext’s final-day volume was about +6.67% above the 50-day average, suggesting that the volume surge amid sideways price action likely corresponds to structural divergence and capital turnover.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell -0.70% for the week, dropping below its 5/10-day moving averages but remaining above its 20/50/200-day moving averages, leaning toward short-term consolidation. In the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) dipped -0.12% this week but hit a yearly high. The S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) fell -0.25% for the week, also hitting a yearly high and staying above its 20/50/200-day moving averages.
Data shows divergent momentum between China and the U.S.—one stable, one strong. China’s March total social electricity consumption grew 3.5% year-on-year, reflecting a mild recovery in production and living demand: amid resilient exports and domestic demand support, the economy remains in a state of “weak recovery with structural divergence.” U.S. March retail sales surged 1.7% month-on-month, significantly higher than the expected 1.4% and prior 0.7%, indicating strong consumer spending that supports growth; however, initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 rose to 214,000 (above the expected 210,000 and prior 208,000), signaling marginal cooling in employment and an economy not overheating unilaterally.
The core contradiction in the U.S. policy environment is “strong demand + energy and supply disruptions + risk of renewed inflation.” EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 1.925 million barrels (the market had expected a 1.2 million barrel draw, prior 913,000-barrel draw), which is relatively dovish for oil prices from a supply-demand perspective, but geopolitical conflicts, ceasefires, and recurring negotiations still dominate risk premiums. Meanwhile, market discussions of “PMI sounding inflation alarms, pressure on U.S. Treasuries and gold” suggest that if inflation expectations rise further, the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain a “higher for longer” rate stance: even with slightly cooling employment, strong consumption will keep it restrained on rate cuts to avoid premature easing of financial conditions. Globally, this will lead to a higher U.S. dollar interest rate center, tighter external financing costs, and heightened sensitivity of risk assets to news flow.
China’s policies present a “stabilize growth, stabilize prices, promote transformation” combination, focusing on expanding domestic demand and improving supply quality. On one hand, domestic oil prices saw their first cut this year (saving about 22 yuan for a full 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline), helping reduce household travel and logistics costs, easing imported inflation pressure, and boosting the recovery elasticity of service consumption and corporate profits; on the other hand, the LPR has remained unchanged for 11 consecutive months, coupled with “overnight funding rates approaching 1.2%, inverted interest rates,” indicating that funding conditions are generally loose but emphasize “transmission efficiency and structural support,” avoiding broad stimulus while using policy tools and optimized financing structures to support key areas.
Policy signals for expanding domestic demand and structural upgrading are more concentrated. The State Council proposed that the total scale of the service industry reach 10 trillion yuan by 2030, meaning future policies will prioritize service consumption, modern service industry supply, and job absorption to consolidate the “main engine” of domestic demand; discussions around “how to follow up on a strong start” essentially shift from stabilizing the aggregate to “raising income, stabilizing expectations, expanding supply,” turning consumption from short-term recovery into sustainable growth. The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued major energy conservation and carbon reduction documents, along with the operation of Pre6G test networks, central enterprise fixed investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan in Q1, and accelerated investment in emerging industries, indicating that policies are directing more investment toward energy transition, digital infrastructure, and technological innovation, balancing security, efficiency, and long-term competitiveness.
Real estate and urban renewal-related signals lean more toward “support rather than stimulus.” Housing inventories fell for the first time after 51 consecutive months of increases, and luxury homes in first-tier cities sold well, indicating improved demand and structural recovery, but “the foundation for stabilization still needs to be consolidated” also suggests policies are more inclined to stabilize supply and demand, stabilize expectations, and prevent risks, avoiding re-leveraging through excessive financialization. Coupled with the Ministry of Commerce’s statements on promoting imports and sharing China’s opportunities, and governance measures such as cracking down on patent fraud in intellectual property, the overall direction is to stabilize corporate expectations and improve resource allocation efficiency through higher-level opening-up and a fairer market order.
Next week, 3,938 stocks will release earnings reports, marking the start of earnings season with significantly higher report density; individual stock volatility and divergence are expected to widen notably, and trading focus will shift more quickly from thematic diffusion to earnings delivery and guidance quality.
On the industry front, the top three gaining sectors this week show a “hospital prosperity-property services-oil & gas equipment” pattern. Medical-Hospitals(G8060IG.CN) rose about 8.78% for the week, with only 9 constituents and a high concentration of gains, more reflecting capital flocking to directions with visible earnings and relatively stable cash flow; however, under policy and cost control frameworks, the sector’s sustainability still depends on whether revenue growth, recovery in patient visits, and changes in expense ratios can be verified in earnings reports. Bldg-Maintenance & Svc(G7340IG.CN) rose about 6.61% for the week, leaning toward the recovery logic of existing homes and property service chains, more influenced by real estate “stabilize expectations, destock” and urban renewal-related expectations. Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip(G3533IG.CN) rose about 5.89% for the week, related to oil & gas capital expenditure and supply security demand amid geopolitical uncertainty, more serving a allocation role in hedging oil price volatility and energy risk premiums; however, the sector is sensitive to oil prices and order cycles, so earnings season requires close tracking of on-hand orders, delivery pace, and gross margin changes to avoid rapid cooling of expectations if oil prices fall.
For individual stocks and portfolios, the Top 33 gained an average of +0.87% this week, with 13 advancing and 20 declining, as profit-making effects cooled and divergence intensified. The top gainer was Zhuzhou Smelter Group ‘A'(600961), up 36.8% this week, with an O’Neil Score of 78, RS Rating of 95, EPS Rating of 99, Acc/Dis Rating of A, and Industry Rating of 27. The industry rating is in a strong range, favoring trend continuation; however, in the highly volatile commodity direction, attention still needs to be paid to changes in metal prices and smelting profits, as well as the strength of earnings delivery, and support for the stock price during earnings season.
In the “uptrend” phase, right-side opportunities can still be sought, but against the backdrop of slowing index gains and widening individual stock divergence, position increases are better aligned with volume-backed breakouts and effective support after pullbacks in strong stocks, avoiding emotional chasing at highs. Entering the high-density earnings season, prioritize industry strength rank 1-40 leaders with verifiable fundamentals, Acc/Dis Rating no lower than C, and healthy technical patterns.
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published on April 24, 2026