CSI 300 Falls 1.41%
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The A-share market remains in an “attempted rebound” phase. However, indices were generally weak this week with a noticeable decline in trading volume. The rebound appears more as a structural repair rather than a trend-driven upward attack. The SSE Index(000001) fell 1.09% for the week. The final day’s trading volume was approximately 20.73% lower than the 50-day average. Although the index is slightly above the 5-day moving average (+0.49%), it remains significantly below the 10/20/50-day moving averages. The gap with the 200-day moving average has narrowed to approximately +1.92%, but a short-term reversal signal still requires volume confirmation. The CSI 300(000300)fell 1.41% for the week, with the final day’s volume about 30.1% lower than the 50-day average. It also sits below the 10/20/50-day moving averages and is approximately +1.42% away from the 200-day moving average, indicating a slow recovery in the heavyweight sector. The Shenzhen Index(399001)fell 0.76% for the week, with the final day’s volume approximately 23.53% lower than the 50-day average. Meanwhile, the ChiNext(399006) fell 1.68% but remains approximately +0.43% above the 20-day moving average; its medium-term relative strength remains superior to the broader market, though short-term movement is constrained by volume.
Regarding Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) fell 1.29% for the week, with the final day’s volume approximately 5.52% lower than the 50-day average. The index remains below the 50/200-day moving averages, showing insufficient repair momentum. Overseas, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) fell 1.11% for the week, and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) fell 0.45%. Both are trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that global risk assets are more sensitive to inflation and interest rate expectations.
In the US, initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 stood at 210,000, consistent with expectations. This is a rise from the previous 205,000 but remains low, indicating resilience in the labor market and no prominent recession pressure. More alarming is the re-pricing of energy and inflation: EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending March 20 surged by 6.926 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 477,000 barrels and the previous 6.156 million. Looking solely at supply and demand, this seems to “press down oil prices.” However, current oil prices are more determined by transit through the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military actions, and ceasefire uncertainty; inventory signals are easily overshadowed by geopolitical risk premiums. Many institutions have begun discussing that “a ceasefire may not lead to rate cuts, and could even lead to hikes.” The essence of this concern is the diffusion of energy and shipping costs into core inflation. Simultaneously, deteriorating liquidity in the US Treasury market and repeated forced liquidations are forcing a passive tightening of financial conditions. The G7’s statement on the “catastrophic impact” of the war also suggests that the global policy environment will likely prioritize “stabilizing inflation expectations and financial markets” in the short term, limiting room for easing.
Regarding China, the policy focus is “stabilizing growth through domestic demand, stabilizing expectations through finance, and improving efficiency through structural policies.” On the monetary front, the central bank will conduct a 500 billion CNY MLF operation on March 25, marking 13 consecutive months of increased rollovers. This signals a commitment to maintaining reasonable liquidity and stabilizing credit expansion, providing a bottom line for corporate financing and resident expectations. Fundamentally, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 15.2% in January-February, showing that production-side repair and corporate profitability improvements are continuing, providing a realistic foundation for the policy of “seeking progress while maintaining stability.”
Efforts to expand domestic demand and livelihood policies are intensifying simultaneously. First, the consumption side emphasizes “steadily increasing the contribution of consumption to growth,” enhancing internal circulation resilience through trade-in programs, service consumption supply, and expectation repair. Second, eight departments issued a plan to accelerate the establishment of a long-term care insurance system. This implies that, against the backdrop of an aging population, institutional development will drive new consumption and employment in medical care and wellness services, forming a longer-term, stable source of demand. Third, real estate policy leans more towards “activating existing stock and boosting housing consumption”: many regions have optimized provident fund policies, releasing approximately 10 trillion CNY in potential capital usage. Second-hand home transactions in Shanghai are active, and signals of market improvement are strengthening. Meanwhile, the state has adopted temporary control measures on refined oil prices (reducing the price increase by approximately 0.85 CNY per liter), aiming to mitigate the transmission of rising energy prices to residents and logistics costs, thereby stabilizing inflation and consumer confidence.
On the external trade front, meetings between the Ministry of Commerce and the US Trade Representative, along with cooperation signals from the Boao Forum, are conducive to stabilizing communication channels in an uncertain external environment and reducing the impact of “sudden policy changes” on corporate expectations.
Next week, 765 companies will release earnings reports. As the market enters earnings season, individual stock volatility and divergence are expected to rise further. Trading sensitivity to performance realization and guidance changes will increase significantly.
At the sector level, against a backdrop of shrinking volume, capital favors a “defensive certainty + policy-related prosperity” allocation. The top three sectors this week reflect a “Power Stability—Agro-Chemical Prosperity—Prescription Drug Defense” combination. Utility-Electric Power(G4911IG.CN) rose approximately 5.6% for the week. With a broad coverage (52 components), it possesses cash flow and dividend attributes under the framework of stable growth and supply, reflecting defensive allocation value. However, the sector fell approximately 0.5% on the day, indicating that capital tends to take short-term profits after a rally. Sustainability depends on electricity pricing mechanisms, cost-side changes (water inflow/coal prices), and earnings stability. Chemicals-Agricultural(G1800IG.CN) rose approximately 5.2%, related to spring ploughing stocking, grain security, and price spread repairs in some varieties. Sector profitability is sensitive to product prices and raw materials (ore, sulfur, energy); companies with integration and cost advantages are more likely to maintain earnings resilience during prosperity fluctuations. Medical-Ethical Drugs(G2830IG.CN) rose approximately 4.54%. Supported by medical insurance and aging demand, its defensive attributes are more prominent. The sector has 28 components with moderate elasticity.
Regarding portfolios and individual stocks, the Top 33 rose an average of +0.32% this week, with 18 rising and 15 falling, indicating a slight warming in structural opportunities. The best performer was Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy(688196), rising 16.03% this week. It has an O’Neil Score of 75, RS Rating of 93, EPS Rating of 43, Acc/Dis Rating of B, and an Industry Rating of 35. In a phase where the “energy transition” narrative is strengthening, the alternative energy direction is more likely to receive thematic attention. However, its earnings quality and capital flow indicators still need to be verified against subsequent orders, price spreads, and policy pacing. During earnings season, focus should be placed on performance realization and guidance elasticity.
Maintain moderate positions in an “attempted rebound” environment. Use volume surges and the recovery of key moving averages as prerequisites for adding positions. Avoid blindly chasing prices when trading volume remains consistently below the 50-day average. Externally, oil price volatility and geopolitical events may still amplify uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rate expectations. As we enter earnings season, performance and guidance will become the core variables determining the relative strength of individual stocks. Operationally, prioritize leaders in the top 1-40 industry strength rankings with verifiable fundamentals, an Acc/Dis Rating of C or higher, and healthy patterns. Advance in batches and use risk control ranges to manage drawdowns and improve capital efficiency.
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Notice: Information contained herein is not and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. It is for educational purposes only.
published on March 27, 2026