CSI 300 Falls 0.28%
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The A-share market continues its upward trend. Market sentiment remains in a relatively positive risk-appetite zone, providing a favorable environment for sustained pursuit of structural investment opportunities. This week, major indices diverged in performance. The SSE Index(000001) rose by 0.03%, trading above its 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages but slightly below its 50-day moving average. Its current level is approximately 3.56% below its 1-year high, and trading volume declined by 9.31% compared to its 50-day average—indicating a modest slowdown in short-term bullish momentum, though the medium-term uptrend remains intact. TheCSI 300(000300) declined by 0.28% this week, weighed down by underperformance in key weight sectors. Despite this, the index remains about 9.08% above its 200-day moving average, though trading activity has notably weakened. On the growth side, the ChiNext(399006) pulled back by 2.26%, primarily due to profit-taking after prior gains and external market volatility. Nevertheless, it still trades 24.28% above its 200-day moving average, reflecting solid medium-term structural support.
In overseas markets, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) and S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) fell by 0.81% and 0.77%, respectively, largely driven by a wave of macroeconomic data releases and shifting monetary policy expectations. Despite the short-term pullback, both indices remain clearly above their 200-day moving averages, with no fundamental change to their long-term trends.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index(HSI) dropped 1.1% this week, with volume significantly below its 50-day average (-31.91%), signaling heightened caution among both southbound and local investors. Nonetheless, the index remains above its long-term moving averages.
On the global macro front, the latest U.S. economic data reflects a “lower inflation, weaker growth” dynamic. November’s unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate came in at 2.7%, well below prior market concerns about persistent inflation and marking a return to the “2% era.” This reinforces the view that disinflationary momentum is continuing. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November—above the expected 4.4%—indicating marginal softening in the labor market. Although November’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls added 64,000 jobs (better than expected), October’s figure was revised sharply downward to -105,000, and retail sales showed zero monthly growth. Together, these suggest continued caution in household spending and corporate hiring, pointing to a slowdown in U.S. economic momentum.
Against this backdrop, Fed policy expectations continue tilting toward easing. The combination of cooling inflation and a softening labor market creates room for monetary policy adjustment. Some Fed officials have already signaled a relatively dovish stance on future rate cuts. Markets are gradually pricing in an earlier start to the medium- to long-term rate-cut cycle, offering temporary relief to valuation pressures on rate-sensitive assets. However, given the inherent volatility in employment and inflation data, the pace of any policy pivot is likely to remain cautious.
On the energy front, EIA crude oil inventories declined by 1.274 million barrels, extending the drawdown trend. Yet demand-side indicators have not shown clear acceleration, limiting crude’s potential deflationary feedback on broader inflation.
In Europe, the ECB’s deposit facility rate remains unchanged at 2%, indicating that eurozone monetary policy has entered a period of relative stability amid economic headwinds. The pace of Europe’s recovery remains sluggish, offering limited support to global demand, and the marginal boost from external demand to China’s exports remains uncertain.
Domestically, the macro and policy stance continues to emphasize growth stabilization. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) resumed 14-day reverse repos ahead of year-end, actively smoothing liquidity conditions and sending a clear signal of its commitment to stable funding markets. This helps contain short-term interest rate volatility and supports investor risk appetite in capital markets.
Policy focus on boosting domestic demand is intensifying. Central authorities have repeatedly stressed that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority for next year, with implementation efforts spanning income redistribution, innovation in consumption scenarios, and upgrades in service supply—highlighting domestic demand recovery as a central theme for medium-term economic activity.
Structural reforms and regulatory policies are advancing in parallel. On one hand, regulators are launching comprehensive measures to address “involutionary competition,” aiming to foster a market environment that rewards quality and promotes healthy competition—beneficial for improving corporate earnings quality over the medium to long term. On the other hand, capital market reforms are deepening, with recent statements emphasizing institutional inclusiveness and enhanced investment-financing functions, laying the groundwork for long-term capital inflows and market ecosystem improvements.
Regional and industrial policies are also gaining multi-pronged momentum. Hainan Free Trade Port has entered the substantive phase of island-wide customs closure—a critical step in institutional opening-up—that is expected to boost activity in services trade, cross-border investment, and premium consumption. At the local level, policy support is intensifying in future industries, advanced manufacturing, and new energy, aligning with the central government’s directive to “counter involution and promote upgrading.” Housing market data shows divergence: prices of new homes in select cities show marginal improvement, while second-hand home prices in tier-1 cities remain under pressure, prompting policies to focus more on stabilizing existing inventory and mitigating systemic risks.
At the sector level, the top three gainers this week reflect recovery in consumption and services. Retail-Super/Mini Mkts(G5411IG.CN) surged 11.57%, with 10 constituent stocks and trading volume of 17.231 billion lots, signaling renewed consumer demand for everyday convenience retail. Retail-Department Stores(G8077IG.CN) rose 8.49%, reflecting market optimism about retail recovery and policy-driven consumption stimulus. Leisure-Lodging(G7011IG.CN) gained 7.22%, showing clear signs of sectoral rebound, supported by recovering travel and mobility trends. Overall, consumption and service sectors are showing strong activity under policy guidance, highlighting structural opportunities driven by domestic demand.
In portfolio and stock performance, the TOP33 portfolio posted an average weekly gain of 0.97%, with 19 gainers and 14 decliners—indicating continued internal divergence. The top performer, Great Microwave Technology(688270), operates in a sector with strong technological and policy tailwinds. It boasts an RS Rating of 98 (indicating exceptional price strength over the past year), an EPS Rating of 77 (reflecting robust and sustainable earnings growth), and an O’Neil Score of 75 (solidly above average). Given its role as a core supplier in military communications, radar, and satellite internet, the stock exemplifies investor focus on high-end, domestically controllable semiconductors.
Overall, a domestically supportive policy tone—combined with easing global inflation and moderating monetary policy expectations—provides a favorable external environment for medium-term market performance. Short-term index volatility has not altered the landscape of structural opportunities. Capital continues to favor high-quality stocks with strong fundamentals, leading RS Ratings, and top-tier rankings in O’Neil industry groups.
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published on December 19, 2025