CSI 300 Rises 1.64%
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This week, the A-share market exhibited choppy movements following a brief rebound, with major indices stabilizing but lacking strong momentum. Market sentiment gradually shifted from caution toward tentative optimism. The SSE Index(000001) rose 1.4% for the week, reclaiming ground above its short-term moving averages, yet remains 3.61% below its one-year high. Trading volume contracted by nearly 20%, reflecting conservative investor participation. The CSI 300(000300) gained 1.64%, having rebounded more than 20% from its year-to-date low, though it has yet to break through key resistance levels—highlighting persistent structural market dynamics. The Shenzhen Index(399001) and ChiNext(399006) surged 3.56% and 4.54% respectively, with ChiNext now up over 70% from its one-year low, signaling a recovery in sentiment among high-growth sectors and a phased rebound in tech-related themes. Hong Kong markets also stabilized, as the Hang Seng Index(HSI) advanced 2.53%, though trading volume failed to expand meaningfully, leaving the sustainability of the rally in question.
Global risk appetite underwent repricing this week amid intensifying debate over the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory. Macro data revealed a “fragile resilience” pattern. The Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) climbed 4.23%, and the S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) rose 3.17%, both approaching their annual highs. However, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories surged to 2.774 million barrels—far exceeding the expected 55,000 barrels—indicating weak energy demand and reinforcing signs of slowing economic activity. September U.S. retail sales posted a modest 0.2% month-over-month increase, below the forecast of 0.4% and down from the prior month, underscoring pressure on household consumption. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, beating expectations, yet major investment banks—including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan—warned that U.S. corporations have entered a new round of layoffs. Employment data may thus “deteriorate with a lag” in coming months, revealing underlying economic weakness even as the timing of policy-driven rate cuts remains uncertain.
Adding to market uncertainty is speculation over the next Fed Chair. Former White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has emerged as a leading candidate, known for his dovish stance favoring aggressive rate cuts and supply-side reforms. Markets briefly speculated that a post-Powell Fed might immediately implement a 50-basis-point cut. However, growing divergence within the Fed—between prioritizing inflation control versus employment support—amid widening fiscal pressures and labor market fragmentation has heightened repricing risks for interest rates, likely amplifying near-term volatility in tech asset valuations.
In stark contrast to overseas policy ambiguity, China’s policy framework is accelerating with clear industrial direction and structural reinforcement. The State Council Information Office announced an upcoming briefing on consumption policies focused on improving supply-demand alignment in consumer goods. Concurrently, six ministries—including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)—issued joint guidelines to promote consumption upgrades. The core policy logic is shifting from “demand stimulus” toward “scenario cultivation + category expansion + industrial chain optimization,” marking a transition from temporary support to structural expansion. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China conducted a CNY 1 trillion Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rollover—the ninth consecutive monthly net injection—signaling a focus on financial stability and smooth financing costs rather than broad-based easing. Expectations for imminent RRR or rate cuts have thus moderated, though targeted credit expansion continues.
On the industrial front, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reaffirmed significant progress in REITs expansion and “Two Major Projects” (infrastructure and technological self-reliance). Policy signals are increasingly validating emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy, domestic substitution, and humanoid robotics, with clearer subsidy frameworks and capacity expansion roadmaps. The industry cycle is transitioning from “concept-driven” to a second phase of “policy delivery + real-world implementation,” shifting growth asset valuations from expectation-driven to earnings-realization cycles.
International trade relations are also evolving. Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held talks with European counterparts on semiconductor supply chain issues. Notably, foreign institutions like UBS and Fidelity International issued rare synchronized bullish calls on Chinese tech stocks. Additionally, a Chinese delegation is set to visit the U.S., accelerating the reopening of bilateral communication channels. Against the backdrop of global high rates and supply chain reallocation, Chinese tech assets are gaining a coherent narrative for systematic revaluation.
From a sectoral perspective, this week’s top three performing industries all align with clear policy support and rising industrial momentum:Telecom-Fiber Optics(G3552IG.CN) led gains with a 12.52% weekly increase and trading volume reaching CNY 395.67 billion. Driven by AI infrastructure expansion, the “East Data West Computing” initiative, and recovering overseas optical module demand, the sector’s outlook remains robust. Optical modules and communication equipment play a critical role in data center investment cycles, as AI large models demand higher bandwidth—significantly improving order visibility across the supply chain.Consumer Prod-Electronic(G3651IG.CN) ranked second, rising 12.01%. Supported by domestic consumption policies and concentrated foreign institutional buying of Chinese tech equities, demand expectations for smart hardware and next-gen display technologies are strengthening, exhibiting a “low inventory + new product cycle launch” dynamic.Bldg-Maintenance & Svc(G7340IG.CN) took third place with a 10.94% gain. Though trading volume was relatively modest, sustained policy signals—particularly around affordable housing funding, operational optimization of existing assets, and property services—are triggering a valuation reset. Sector elasticity continues to unfold amid policy tailwinds and balance sheet improvements.
In portfolio performance, the TOP33 basket rose 5.82% this week, significantly outperforming the broader market, with only three constituents posting losses—highlighting ongoing structural divergence. The top gainer was EverProX Technologies Co Ltd(300548), surging 20.84% for the week. It boasts an RS Rating of 98, EPS Rating of 88, and O’Neil Score of 74—placing it firmly in the upper echelon of its industry group. Specializing in integrated optoelectronic components for optical communications, the company benefits from high supply-chain localization and strong exposure to AI compute expansion and data center demand, ensuring sustainable sector tailwinds. Its counter-trend strength reflects market validation of its technological edge and industrial positioning, making it a quintessential leader in the current structural market regime.
In summary, the A-share market is gradually emerging from its recent correction, though a confirmed uptrend remains unestablished. Both index performance and trading volume must further confirm whether fresh capital is genuinely returning. Meanwhile, China’s intensified policy focus on the new economy and tech ecosystem is becoming the focal point for capital allocation. As policy dividends increasingly converge with industrial cycles, the market may find opportunities to break higher amid ongoing consolidation.
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published on November 28, 2025