CSI 300 fell by 1.33%
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The A-share market remains in the “attempting a rebound” phase; indices experienced an overall adjustment this week but the medium-term trend is still stable. The SSE Index(000001) fell by -1.27% for the week, with the last day’s trading volume decreasing by about -10.35% compared to the 50-day average, prices are still higher than the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (approximately +1.47% and +8.89% respectively); CSI 300(000300) fell by -1.33%, with energy returning approximately -12.24%, it is above the 200-day moving average by about +7.40%; Shenzhen Index(399001) fell by -2.11%, at a distance of around +14.82% from the 200-day moving average; ChiNext(399006) fell by -3.28%, at distances of approximately +0.01% and +19.46% from the 50-day and 200-day moving averages respectively. For Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index(HSI)fell by -3.02% for the week, with the last day’s volume increasing by +5.87% compared to the 50-day average, the index remains above major moving averages (at a distance of about +1.03% and +5.16% from the 50-day and 200-day moving averages respectively). Without effective confirmation of increased volume for the rebound, short-term focus is on structural allocation, paying attention to potential “follow-up days”.
Overseas macroeconomic and policy signals are complex. The US January ISM Manufacturing PMI was 52.6 (expected 48.5, previous value 47.9), indicating significant improvement in manufacturing; ADP employment increased by 22,000 new jobs (expected 48,000), initial jobless claims were 231,000 (expected 212,000), showing marginal cooling in employment resilience. EIA crude oil inventories decreased by -3.455 million barrels (expected +0.489 million barrels), fundamental support for oil price elasticity. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate ceiling remained unchanged at 2%, policy continuity helps with market re-pricing; discussions regarding the “Walsh” nomination are seen as helping stabilize market sentiment and support the stabilization of the US dollar, potentially reducing monetary policy uncertainty in the short term.
Regarding the US stock market, currently, the Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC) fell by -3.93% for the week, S & P 500 Index(0S&P5) fell by -2.03%, both remain above the 200-day moving average but volatility has increased. On individual stocks and industry levels, Amazon’s after-hours stock price fell by -11%, its proposed $200 billion investment plan has led to a reevaluation of capital expenditure expectations in growth sectors, possibly suppressing tolerance for high valuation assets temporarily. In terms of resources, the collapse of the “world’s largest mining merger” case, with Rio Tinto and Glencore ending merger talks, suggests a cooling of supply-side acquisition expectations, shifting resource stock valuations towards cash flow and dividend quality. Concerning precious metals, controversy over the “bubble” status of gold has risen, while adjustments to silver futures’ limits and margin ratios by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have raised constraints on volatility management, potentially prompting rebalancing of funds within the precious metals industry chain.
Geopolitical and industrial technology dynamics are noteworthy. The expiration of the US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty has increased medium-to-long term geopolitical risk premiums; the formation of “small circles” alliances for critical minerals has sparked debates on supply security and trade rules, which may prompt China to accelerate domestic substitution and diversification in critical minerals and new energy industry chains. In communication infrastructure, “the 5G network we build is determining the future direction of AI”, with enhanced synergy between computing power and networks, benefiting data centers, fiber optics, and edge cloud ecosystems. Additionally, there are discussions on concepts such as “space GPUs” and “space photovoltaics”, which are currently more thematic in nature and require verification through orders and cost inflection points.
Domestic policies and industrial environment continue to be favorable. In terms of currency, the central bank conducted an RMB 80 billion outright reverse repo operation, strengthening liquidity across holidays and credit transmission stability; the central bank emphasized providing “quality financial services” to major strategies, key areas, and weak links, aligning with the overarching tone of “stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and adjusting structure”. On the industry front, Shanghai has proposed a blueprint for innovation-driven industries and further implemented the “AI+” initiative, enhancing the certainty of digital infrastructure and industrial applications; the aim to “build a world-class metropolitan circle centered around the capital” is expected to drive investment in transportation, communications, and public service facilities among city clusters. Regarding consumption and real estate, multiple regions support using housing provident funds for residential renovation, coupled with the advocacy of selling completed homes rather than presales, suggesting that more funds will flow into post-cycle repairs and community services, thereby weakening the impact of sales fluctuations on related enterprises.
Industry performance updates show that the top three gaining sectors this week all come from consumer and transportation-related segments, favoring service consumption and inventory improvements: Transportation-Airline(G4511IG.CN) sector rose by about 8.66% for the week, against the backdrop of recovery in international routes, restoration of travel and business trips, and airline supply-side optimization (adjustments in fleet and route structures), ticket prices and load factors improved, RPK/ASK indicators are expected to rise simultaneously. Policy-wise, the construction of a “world-class metropolitan circle” and enhanced expectations for foreign exchanges, combined with the Ministry of Commerce’s statements on foreign investments and import expansion, are expected to boost traffic and transfer capabilities of international routes and hub airports. Apparel-Shoes & Rel Mfg(G3141IG.CN) sector rose by about 6.25% for the week, benefiting from the upturn in service consumption and recovery of travel scenarios, brand channel destocking improved, inventory structure optimized, gross margin recovery, and expense ratio decline became core drivers for profit turning points. Policies systematically deployed for service consumption and financial support facilitate the expansion of mid-to-high-end and functional categories, improvements in foreign trade and cross-border e-commerce also enhance the certainty of brands going global. Bldg-Wood Prds(G2400IG.CN)sector rose by about 5.4% for the week, aligning with initiatives like mobilizing over RMB 1 trillion to support home renovations using housing provident funds, promoting the sale of completed units, and focusing on urban renewal and existing property modifications, demands for interior decoration and structural repairs have increased, driving order recoveries in wood and panel segments. Modernization of rural areas and enhancement of county-level consumption also expand home and building material demands in lower-tier cities.
In terms of growth portfolios, the TOP33 averaged a fall of -4.63% this week, with 6 stocks rising and 27 falling, facing short-term pressure. Guangdong Hec Tech Hldg ‘A'(600673)performed the best, rising by +6.09% for the week, with O’Neil Score of 88, RS Rating of 96, EPS Rating of 86, Acc/Dis Rating of A+, and industry rating of 8. Its RS Rating and EPS Rating performances were relatively outstanding, and industry strength is leading, requiring observation of volume increase and stability of shares, along with the continuity of orders in electronic materials and chemical sectors. Caution should be exercised before chasing highs until a clear “follow-up day” appears in the market.
Overall, the market remains in a period of structural digestion during the “attempting a rebound” phase, with index-level gains coming more from sector rotation and volume-price confirmation. Capital allocation logic revolves around O’Neil industry strength, profitability growth quality, and simultaneous improvement in relative strength, stocks supported by policies, having higher demand visibility, and exhibiting robust technical patterns are more likely to receive ongoing attention and valuation premiums in subsequent market trends.
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published on February 6, 2026